Fineline UK MD, Clive Wall, writes about factors affecting the PCB market
It is no great secret that the PCB market has been turbulent for some time now, with prices changing almost daily. Driven by a very real shortage of copper, due to the global growth of several key markets, it is impacting the PCB supply chain in ways we have not previously experienced and there is currently no end in sight to this instability.
Bland de marknader som dränerar kopparreserverna finns marknaden för elektroniska fordon, som beräknas växa med 36 procent per år fram till 2030, vilket innebär en enorm påfrestning på efterfrågan på litiumbatterier. Det globala smartphoneägandet förväntas växa från 60% till 79% 2025. Grön energi står för 13 procent av världens energiförsörjning och förväntas öka till mer än 30 procent. Telekommarknaden och utbyggnaden av 5G-nät kommer att se en ökning av HDI-teknikens kretskort. Dessa marknader förbrukar alla enorma mängder koppar som ökar trycket på en redan stressad kopparmärke.
Dessutom behandlas kopparfolie som används i PCB och förbereds enligt krävande standarder, för att möjliggöra fina spår och komplexa funktioner. Många kopparproducenter föredrar att sälja till energi- och litiumbatterimarknaderna där behandlingen av koppar inte är så krävande. Kopparfolie ökar för närvarande i kostnad i högre takt än koppar som råvara.
A Copper foil capacity is increasing but this won’t happen overnight. At present two copper foil plants are being expanded, one for completion Q4 2021 and the other is scheduled for 2023. However, this will still not be enough to bridge the gap between supply and demand.
PCB Market Overview
The PCB market is changing as 2021 unfolds. The pricing wars of the past, along with production efficiency gains have driven down costs year on year. Now we are seeing the opposite: Lead-times are extending, and global PCB prices are rising rapidly as the market re-sets. Whilst costs may subside when the markets stabilise, it might be that they never return to the level we have enjoyed in recent years.
Supply chain and logistics are another area causing market instability. Both sea and air freight are areas of concern. Whilst air freight demand has returned to pre-pandemic levels, capacity is significantly down due to the reduced number of passenger flights. This is also elevating prices and is expected to continue until passenger flights increase in the future.
Sea freight is in equally high demand due to a post pandemic lockdown rebound, leading to a shortage of containers and routes Asia/USA routes being more profitable than Asia/Europe routes. And of course, Brexit caused additional congestion and delays through UK ports.
Clearly suppliers that control every aspect of the PCB supply chain are best placed to manage the challenges. And as 2021 progresses, organisations that benefit from strong, close partnerships with those PCB suppliers will be best placed to navigate any further upheaval.