Fineline UK MD, Clive Wall, writes about factors affecting the PCB market
It is no great secret that the PCB market has been turbulent for some time now, with prices changing almost daily. Driven by a very real shortage of copper, due to the global growth of several key markets, it is impacting the PCB supply chain in ways we have not previously experienced and there is currently no end in sight to this instability.
Een van de markten die de kopervoorraden uitputten, is de markt voor elektronische voertuigen, die naar verwachting tot 2030 jaarlijks met 36% zal groeien, waardoor de vraag naar lithiumbatterijen sterk onder druk komt te staan. Het wereldwijde bezit van smartphones zal naar verwachting stijgen van 60% tot 79% in 2025. Groene energie is goed voor 13% van de wereldwijde energievoorziening en dit zal naar verwachting stijgen tot meer dan 30%. De telecommarkt en de uitbreiding van 5G-netwerken zullen een stijging van het aantal printplaten met HDI-technologie te zien geven. Al deze markten verbruiken enorme hoeveelheden koper, waardoor de toch al onder druk staande kopermarkt nog verder onder druk komt te staan.
Bovendien wordt koperfolie dat in printplaten wordt gebruikt, behandeld en geprepareerd volgens strenge normen, om fijne banen en complexe kenmerken mogelijk te maken. Veel koperproducenten geven er de voorkeur aan te verkopen aan de energiemarkt en de markt voor lithiumbatterijen, waar de behandeling van koper niet zo veeleisend is. De kosten van koperfolie stijgen momenteel sneller dan die van koper als grondstof.
A Copper foil capacity is increasing but this won’t happen overnight. At present two copper foil plants are being expanded, one for completion Q4 2021 and the other is scheduled for 2023. However, this will still not be enough to bridge the gap between supply and demand.
PCB Market Overview
The PCB market is changing as 2021 unfolds. The pricing wars of the past, along with production efficiency gains have driven down costs year on year. Now we are seeing the opposite: Lead-times are extending, and global PCB prices are rising rapidly as the market re-sets. Whilst costs may subside when the markets stabilise, it might be that they never return to the level we have enjoyed in recent years.
Supply chain and logistics are another area causing market instability. Both sea and air freight are areas of concern. Whilst air freight demand has returned to pre-pandemic levels, capacity is significantly down due to the reduced number of passenger flights. This is also elevating prices and is expected to continue until passenger flights increase in the future.
Sea freight is in equally high demand due to a post pandemic lockdown rebound, leading to a shortage of containers and routes Asia/USA routes being more profitable than Asia/Europe routes. And of course, Brexit caused additional congestion and delays through UK ports.
Clearly suppliers that control every aspect of the PCB supply chain are best placed to manage the challenges. And as 2021 progresses, organisations that benefit from strong, close partnerships with those PCB suppliers will be best placed to navigate any further upheaval.